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Trump's tariffs get a sturdier legal footing

The administration opened broad investigations on 2 June under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, aimed at foreign forced-labour practices and digital services taxes.

Three ways the Hormuz crisis could end

International mediators published a tentative framework on 28 May for ending the maritime crisis in the Persian Gulf.

Peace, maybe: how markets price it

Markets rallied in a jumpy, nervous fashion on 26 May on rumours that a comprehensive peace framework between Washington and Tehran, mediated by the Swiss, was close.

Memorial Day: Summer driving at $100 oil

Brent crude sat between $105 and $108 over Memorial Day weekend, and the average price of petrol at American pumps topped $4.60 a gallon.

$35bn of refunds, and where it goes

US Customs and Border Protection said on 22 May that it has paid out roughly $35.5 billion in court-ordered tariff refunds to importers.

Iran charges ships a toll, in yuan

Iran says commercial ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz must now pay a "maritime security passage toll" of up to $2 million a transit, and only in Chinese yuan.

What does Warsh want?

Jerome Powell's term as Fed chairman formally ends in mid-May, and markets have turned their full attention to Kevin Warsh, who takes over.

The world is running down its oil reserves

The chief executive of Saudi Aramco told an energy conference in Riyadh on 11 May that the world is using up its emergency stocks of crude and refined products at a rate it cannot keep up.

Court rules Trump's new tariff illegal too

The US Court of International Trade (CIT) struck down the administration's temporary 10 per cent tariffs on 7 May, knocking out the White House's fallback trade plan.

Why ships won't sail through Hormuz

The Pentagon paused its naval convoy escorts through the Persian Gulf on 4 May, an embarrassing halt to its plan to reopen the route to trade.

Diesel prices are the warning sign

Wholesale diesel crack spreads have climbed steeply and without pause, and energy analysts and industrial economists think they matter more than the headline Brent price that most commentators watch.

Powell's final meeting

Jerome Powell chaired his last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on 28 April, closing an eight-year term that took in a pandemic, the worst inflation in decades and a run of trade wars.

Who deserves the tariff refund?

The refunds that will add to America's borrowing

The Treasury switched on the Customs Automated Protest Entity (CAPE) on 20 April.

When will importers get their money?

Tax Day: Refunds from the IRS — and from Customs

On Tax Day 2026 millions of American households sent their annual returns to the Internal Revenue Service.

The ceasefire that didn't open the strait

Hopes raised by the Middle East ceasefire were gone by 13 April. The United States Navy did not escort commercial tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Refiners are winning the war

Airlines are losing money and carmakers have stalled, but refiners are doing very nicely out of the Gulf crisis.

A ceasefire, and oil falls

Crude fell by more than eight per cent on 7–8 April after officials from Washington and Tehran, along with regional mediators, announced a tentative and temporary ceasefire framework.

Steel tariffs just got a lot bigger

On 6 April the administration rewrote its tariffs on metals. Duties used to be calculated on the value of the steel or aluminium inside an imported product.

Asia pays the most for Hormuz

China, India, Japan and South Korea take more than eighty per cent of the petroleum that passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia's pipeline around the war

With ships still unable to move through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has turned to its back door.

What bond markets say about the oil shock

Brent crude crossed $100 after the Hormuz shock, and the Treasury market split in two.

The Fed faces a war shock

The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 per cent at its March meeting.

Emergency oil can't fill the gap

The International Energy Agency's coordinated release of 400 million barrels of crude and refined products from strategic reserves was billed as a multilateral effort with no precedent.

Which airlines are protected from $100 oil

Jet fuel prices soared after Hormuz closed, and airlines split into two camps: those that had hedged their fuel and those buying at spot prices.

Tariffs go up, refunds go out

Washington ran two stories side by side on 10 March. The administration announced plans to raise Section 122 tariffs to the legal maximum of 15 per cent.

How much will oil push up prices?

Brent crude is trading well above $100 a barrel for the first time since August 2022, and central bank economists are rushing to redo their estimates of how much will feed through into wider inflation.

The oil shock the world feared

Brent crude shot above $100 a barrel after war broke out in the Persian Gulf on 28 February.

Who gets the $166bn tariff refund?

With the IEEPA tariffs struck down, boardrooms have started fighting over $166 billion in refunds.

Trump's new tariff has a 150-day clock

On 24 February, days after the Supreme Court's rebuke, the White House invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and imposed an immediate, temporary 10 per cent tariff on all goods imports.

The Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs

The Supreme Court struck down the administration's across-the-board tariffs by 6–3 on 20 February.

Lunar New Year: China keeps the yuan steady

The Lunar New Year holiday emptied mainland China's financial centres, and the People's Bank of China kept the onshore yuan on a tight leash.

Tariffs raise $30bn a month. Not for long?

Customs duties were bringing in $30 billion a month in early 2026, holding federal revenue at record levels.

Valentine's Day: Betting on the Supreme Court

More than $130 billion in collected duties depends on the Supreme Court's ruling on the emergency tariffs, and on Valentine's Day trading desks were thinking about that rather than romance.

AI is coming for software companies

Enterprise software stocks crashed in early February, and specialist software ETFs fell deep into correction territory.

The dollar's Warsh moment

The US Dollar Index jumped sharply in a single day after Kevin Warsh was formally nominated as Federal Reserve chairman.

Super Bowl: Shoppers wait for the tariff verdict

Americans settled in to watch Super Bowl LX with something besides football on their minds.

The job numbers, rewritten again

Who is Kevin Warsh?

On 30 January the White House nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chairman.

Big Tech's AI spending passes $600bn

Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon together now expect to spend more than $600 billion on capital projects in 2026, according to guidance given with their fourth-quarter results.

The yen nears Japan's line in the sand

The dollar climbed steadily towards 158 yen, pushing the currency close to the level the Ministry of Finance is widely believed to defend.

How long do Trump's tariff threats last?

A typical presidential tariff threat lasts about seventy-two hours before the retreat or the exemptions arrive.

Trump's tariff threat over Greenland

On 20 January the White House threatened European countries with immediate 25 per cent tariffs on all their goods exports unless Denmark and its European allies formally open talks on handing sovereignty over Greenland to the United States.

Banks cash in on chaos

JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup reported fourth-quarter results with a familiar split.

Japan's 30-year bond hits a record

Yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds hit a record high as Tokyo's bond market sold off again.

The job market's confusing signals

The unemployment rate rose to 4.6 per cent in November, and the jobs report left economists' models in a muddle.

Tariffs are now funding the government

Customs duties raised $195 billion in gross collections in fiscal year 2025, according to Treasury Department receipts.

Companies brace for a tariff refund

More than $130 billion of emergency IEEPA customs duties hang on the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, and company accountants and the Big Four audit firms are busy drafting contingency disclosures.

New Year: 2026 hinges on one court case

Executives and fund managers back at their desks for 2026 find their forecasts hanging on one outside event.