Latest Headlines

Nvidia pays Washington to sell to China

Washington has agreed to let Nvidia resume sales of its customised H20 artificial intelligence chips to China, on condition that the company hands 15 per cent of the revenue straight to the US Treasury.

India hit with 50% tariffs

The administration has put a 50 per cent tariff on Indian imports, doubling the 25 per cent reciprocal rate in force since 7 August with a further 25 per cent that takes effect on 27 August.

Back to school: Tariffs hit the shopping list

Back-to-school shopping has given American families a practical lesson in trade economics.

How 258,000 jobs disappeared

Two consecutive monthly revisions removed 258,000 jobs that had already been reported.

Trump fires the jobs data chief

The commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was fired on 5 August, breaking a long-standing norm that official economic statistics are kept free of political interference.

Copper tariffs, with a twist

Washington's new tariffs on imported refined and semi-finished copper take effect on 1 August, and their structure surprised the market.

Europe settles for 15%

After weeks of tense talks, the European Union agreed a trade arrangement with Washington.

Tariffs finally show up in prices

June's consumer price index settled the argument over whether tariffs raise prices.

Japan's deal: 15% and $550bn

Stablecoins get their rulebook

The GENIUS Act became law with the president's signature on 18 July, giving payment stablecoins a federal rulebook.

Japan's bond market turns nervous

Yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) rose to about 3.2 per cent, a sharp jolt for what has long been the calmest and most tightly managed government bond market in the world.

Tariffs are raising $27bn a month

America collected $27 billion in tariff receipts in June alone, according to official customs revenue figures.

Trump's tariff letters arrive

Formal tariff letters from the White House reached Tokyo and Seoul on 7 July, and the diplomatic niceties went out of the window with them.

Prime Day: Four days of discounts, and tariffs

Amazon stretched Prime Day to four days this year and filled it with millions of promotions.

The tax break that could spark a factory boom

The OBBBA, signed into law on 4 July, contains one corporate tax provision that deserves more attention than it has had.

Independence Day: The real cost of the "big beautiful bill"

While the country celebrated Independence Day, the non-partisan budget scorekeepers delivered a grim verdict on the new fiscal law.

The debt ceiling rises by $5trn

The President has signed the Omnibus Budget and Balanced Border Act (OBBBA), raising the statutory federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion and ending months of political brinkmanship.

A divided Fed

The Federal Reserve's June Summary of Economic Projections shows a committee split down the middle.

America bombs Iran. Oil falls

American forces struck Iranian facilities on 21–22 June, after days of speculation and rising energy prices.

Stablecoins could become big buyers of Treasuries

The Senate has passed the Guiding Electronic National Innovation and Uniform Standards (GENIUS) Act, giving dollar-backed stablecoins a formal federal regulatory framework for the first time.

Oil jumps as Israel strikes Iran

Israel struck Iranian military infrastructure and strategic installations on 13 June, and crude oil shot up.

Tariffs still aren't showing up in prices

May's consumer price index put headline inflation at 2.4 per cent year-on-year, and once again the tariff-driven surge that many had expected failed to appear.

China's rare earths are its best weapon

When trade talks reconvened in London on 9–10 June, Beijing played its strongest card.

Steel tariffs double

On 4 June the White House doubled baseline tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, from 25 per cent to 50 per cent.

The tax aimed at foreign investors

A new legislative draft on Capitol Hill proposes a withholding tax surcharge of up to 20 per cent on the dividends and interest paid to foreign holders of US corporate equity and debt.

A court strikes down Trump's tariffs, for now

The "big beautiful bill" and its big bill

The House of Representatives passed the 'One Big Beautiful Bill', the administration's flagship legislation, by a razor-thin party-line majority on 22 May.

Memorial Day: Downgraded, and still spending

America marked Memorial Day with a fresh downgrade to Aa1 from Moody's and with Congress pushing ahead on another fiscal package worth several trillion dollars that would widen federal deficits further.

Walmart warns prices are going up

Walmart used its first-quarter results to warn that it can no longer absorb tariffs and that shelf prices for consumer goods, clothing and general merchandise are about to rise sharply.

America loses its last AAA rating

Moody's Investors Service cut the federal government's long-term issuer rating from Aaa to Aa1 on 16 May, taking away America's last top-grade sovereign credit rating.

Where are the tariff price rises?

Consumer prices rose a modest 2.3 per cent in the year to April, despite months of tough talk on trade and rising border levies.

America and China call a truce

Washington and Beijing surprised markets with a 90-day trade truce that rolls back their triple-digit tariffs to an interim level.

Britain gets the first trade deal

Up to 100,000 British-built cars will enter the United States at a 10 per cent tariff under a new agreement, instead of the 25 per cent levy hanging over other European carmakers.

China holds the yuan steady

The People's Bank of China is holding the onshore yuan near 7.20 per dollar, using firm daily fixings and dollar sales by state banks to keep it from weakening.

GDP shrank. The economy didn't

The advance estimate shows GDP shrinking at a rate of −0.3 per cent in the first quarter, and parts of the financial press were quick to call a recession.

The import rush that will shrink GDP

America's goods trade deficit hit a record of about $162 billion in March, as importers rushed cargo into American ports ahead of tariff deadlines.

Tariffs haven't dented Big Tech's AI spending

Alphabet has confirmed that its capital spending will run above $75 billion a year, and Microsoft and Meta have repeated their own large plans for AI infrastructure.

"Sell America": are foreign investors walking away?

The US Dollar Index has dropped to a three-year low near 98, and traders on currency and government bond desks around the world have started talking about a 'Sell America' trade.

The dollar stops acting like a safe haven

The Dollar Index has fallen below 100 even though benchmark 10-year Treasury yields are hovering near 4.5 per cent.

Tax Day: The biggest tax rise in decades isn't in the tax code

The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the administration's tariffs have raised the effective national tax rate by about 22 per cent.

145%: a tariff that stops trade

Washington has raised duties on Chinese imports to 145 per cent, and Beijing has answered with levies of 125 per cent on American goods.

Companies stop giving forecasts

Dozens of Fortune 500 companies have withdrawn their annual earnings forecasts, saying they cannot put numbers on the next few months.

Stocks and bonds fall together. That's the problem

Ten-year US Treasury yields rose by roughly 50 basis points in five trading days this week while share prices fell.

The formula behind Trump's tariffs

The S&P 500 fell 4.8 per cent on 3 April after the White House published a formula that ties each country's tariff rate to America's goods trade deficit with it.

Liberation Day: what to expect

At the end of 2024 the effective US tariff rate stood at about 2.4 per cent, a historic low that supported decades of largely free trade.

Carmakers face 25% tariffs

Washington has imposed 25 per cent tariffs on imported cars and on key car parts and sub-assemblies, the outcome carmakers had dreaded most.

The Fed quietly stops shrinking its bond pile

From April, the Federal Reserve will let only $5 billion of maturing US Treasury securities run off its balance sheet each month, down from $25 billion.

The Fed sees slower growth and higher prices

The Federal Reserve cut its forecast for 2025 GDP growth to 1.7 per cent and raised its forecast for core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to 2.8 per cent.

Germany rewrites its debt rules

The Bundestag has passed a constitutional amendment that loosens Germany's strict debt brake and sets up a €500 billion off-budget fund for infrastructure and modernisation, to be spent over several years.

The market's biggest names fall hardest

The S&P 500 has fallen ten per cent from its recent high, the textbook definition of a correction.