Thanksgiving: Why eggs cost more this year

As American families gathered for Thanksgiving dinner, the annual American Farm Bureau Federation survey provided an interesting study in agricultural price dynamics. The average cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner for ten slipped five per cent to $58.08, yet the cost of eggs surged by more than fifty per cent, driven by a virulent resurgence of avian influenza.

The Anatomy of Micro Supply Shocks

The agricultural survey illustrates the fundamental limitation of aggregate consumer price metrics: while broad food disinflation has brought welcome relief to consumer ledgers, idiosyncratic biological and climatic supply shocks can instantly re-inflate essential basket items. Monetary policy can discipline aggregate demand, but it cannot vaccinate poultry flocks against viral outbreaks.

The Thanksgiving dinner survey highlights the uneven nature of post-pandemic disinflation, proving that supply shocks can easily derail consumer sentiment even as broad inflation recedes.