The Lombard Review

The inflation that won't budge

Monthly core persistence

The back entrance to the store used to have a couple lonely checkouts -- specifically, four self-checkouts and the abandoned-looking register 8
The back entrance to the store used to have a couple lonely checkouts -- specifically, four self-checkouts and the abandoned-looking register 8 Photo: Northwest Retail/Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 2.0
By The Lombard Review
1 min read

Key dataNov core CPI +0.3%, 4th straight

The November consumer price index delivered another dispiriting confirmation of inflation persistence, with core prices advancing by 0.3 per cent month-on-month for the fourth consecutive print, keeping annual core inflation pinned at 3.3 per cent. Disinflation in the United States has ground to a complete, stubborn halt.

The Lower Manhattan skyline seen from beneath the deck of the Brooklyn Bridge, New York City, USA
The Lower Manhattan skyline seen from beneath the deck of the Brooklyn Bridge, New York City, USA Photo: Christian David/Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0

The Autoregressive Stalemate

The persistence is concentrated inside domestic services, auto insurance, and healthcare, where prices are insulated from global goods deflation and track sticky compensation trends. With sequential core inflation compounding at nearly four per cent annualized, the Federal Reserve has zero empirical justification for continuing an aggressive monetary easing campaign. Inflation is simply refusing to budge.

Victorian houses at Pacific Heights
Victorian houses at Pacific Heights Photo: Nicolas Lannuzel/Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 2.0

Four consecutive months of 0.3 per cent core inflation prints prove that price pressures have hardened, warning central bankers that further rate cuts risk reigniting the inflationary fire.

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