The AI boom now runs on borrowed money
The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52 per cent on Thursday, to 24,315, its worst day since April 2025.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52 per cent on Thursday, to 24,315, its worst day since April 2025.


The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to about 5.2 per cent on Monday, its highest level since July 2007, after closing last week at around 5.18 per cent.

The producer price index rose 0.4 per cent in August from July, and core wholesale prices rose 0.2 per cent.

This column turns four this month, with exactly 500 essays published since its launch in September 2022.

Second-quarter 10-Q filings from across the Fortune 500 split companies into two groups.

Headline consumer price inflation picked up again in July to 3.4 per cent year on year.

Front-month Brent rose 16 per cent in five trading sessions to $88 a barrel after Middle East peace talks broke up without an agreement on 28 July.

Court-ordered tariff refunds have taken over the second-quarter earnings calls. Big consumer-products groups and retailers are reporting large net income beats, and the refunds, not their operations, account for all of the gain.

The administration launched its broad Section 301 investigation into alleged forced labour in foreign supply chains on 2 June, and compliance and logistics teams are now counting the cost.

The Persian Gulf peace agreement that mediators had talked up so loudly was still unsigned on 9 June, and markets lurched.

More than twenty-two merchant ships, twelve of them ultra-large crude carriers and eight of them container ships, are still at anchor and going nowhere across the northern Indian Ocean.

US Customs and Border Protection said on 22 May that it has paid out roughly $35.5 billion in court-ordered tariff refunds to importers.

Airlines are losing money and carmakers have stalled, but refiners are doing very nicely out of the Gulf crisis.

With ships still unable to move through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has turned to its back door.

Jet fuel prices soared after Hormuz closed, and airlines split into two camps: those that had hedged their fuel and those buying at spot prices.

With the IEEPA tariffs struck down, boardrooms have started fighting over $166 billion in refunds.

Enterprise software stocks crashed in early February, and specialist software ETFs fell deep into correction territory.

Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon together now expect to spend more than $600 billion on capital projects in 2026, according to guidance given with their fourth-quarter results.

More than $130 billion of emergency IEEPA customs duties hang on the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, and company accountants and the Big Four audit firms are busy drafting contingency disclosures.

Executives and fund managers back at their desks for 2026 find their forecasts hanging on one outside event.

Paramount Global made a hostile all-cash bid of $30 a share for Warner Bros Discovery on 19 December, an open attempt to wreck the all-stock merger Netflix had already agreed.


Americans spent more than $13 billion online on Cyber Monday, a record according to Adobe Analytics.

Nvidia reported $57 billion of revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, another huge number and comfortably ahead of Wall Street's consensus forecast.

Meta Platforms has sold $30 billion of investment-grade bonds in several tranches, a deal of a size rarely seen, to pay for its artificial intelligence spending plans.

Look closely at the venture deals financing the artificial intelligence boom and a circular pattern appears, one that recalls the worst speculative habits of the dot-com era.

First Brands, a big car-parts maker, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and Tricolor, a subprime auto lender, had already collapsed into a Chapter 7 liquidation weeks earlier.

Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO), the measure of contracted but unbilled customer backlog that software analysts trust most, rose by 36 per cent year-on-year to a record $455 billion.


The GENIUS Act became law with the president's signature on 18 July, giving payment stablecoins a federal rulebook.

The OBBBA, signed into law on 4 July, contains one corporate tax provision that deserves more attention than it has had.

Walmart used its first-quarter results to warn that it can no longer absorb tariffs and that shelf prices for consumer goods, clothing and general merchandise are about to rise sharply.

Up to 100,000 British-built cars will enter the United States at a 10 per cent tariff under a new agreement, instead of the 25 per cent levy hanging over other European carmakers.

Alphabet has confirmed that its capital spending will run above $75 billion a year, and Microsoft and Meta have repeated their own large plans for AI infrastructure.

Dozens of Fortune 500 companies have withdrawn their annual earnings forecasts, saying they cannot put numbers on the next few months.

Washington has imposed 25 per cent tariffs on imported cars and on key car parts and sub-assemblies, the outcome carmakers had dreaded most.

Nvidia reported fourth-quarter revenue of $39.3 billion, evidence that demand for its chips is still enormous.

The White House has put a 25 per cent tariff on imported steel and aluminium and scrapped the exemptions that long covered friendly suppliers.

Meta raised its 2025 capex forecast to $60–$65 billion in late January, and Microsoft said annual infrastructure spending would approach $80 billion.

JPMorgan Chase earned a record net income of nearly $58 billion in 2024, the high point of a long boom in net interest income.

The White House has formally blocked Nippon Steel’s proposed $14.9 billion takeover of United States Steel, putting domestic industrial politics ahead of cross-border capital.

Honda and Nissan have confirmed they are in early talks about a merger, which could also take in Mitsubishi Motors.


Online spending on Cyber Monday hit a record $13.3 billion. The number retail finance analysts noticed was smaller: close to $1 billion of it was paid for with 'Buy Now, Pay Later' (BNPL) plans, the most ever for deferred consumer credit.

American companies are stockpiling. Purchasing managers expect heavy import tariffs soon after the inauguration in January, and corporate treasurers are trying to get ahead of them by bringing forward orders from Asia and Europe.

Hyundai Motor India raised ₹27,870 crore ($3.3 billion) this Diwali season, the largest IPO in the country's corporate history.

Tesla shares jumped twenty-two per cent after the company reported that third-quarter automotive gross margins had widened to 17.1 per cent.

Third-quarter results from the biggest US commercial banks show the windfall from high interest rates is fading.

Microsoft has signed a 20-year power purchase agreement that will bring the shuttered Unit 1 reactor at Three Mile Island back into service.
