Switzerland's 39% shock
A 39 per cent tariff on Swiss exports to the United States took effect on 7 August, and it caught Switzerland off guard.
Economy
Explainer
How 258,000 jobs disappeared
Two consecutive monthly revisions removed 258,000 jobs that had already been reported.
Trump fires the jobs data chief
The commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was fired on 5 August, breaking a long-standing norm that official economic statistics are kept free of political interference.
Special Report
Independence Day: The real cost of the "big beautiful bill"
While the country celebrated Independence Day, the non-partisan budget scorekeepers delivered a grim verdict on the new fiscal law.
A divided Fed
The Federal Reserve's June Summary of Economic Projections shows a committee split down the middle.
Tariffs still aren't showing up in prices
May's consumer price index put headline inflation at 2.4 per cent year-on-year, and once again the tariff-driven surge that many had expected failed to appear.
The "big beautiful bill" and its big bill
The House of Representatives passed the 'One Big Beautiful Bill', the administration's flagship legislation, by a razor-thin party-line majority on 22 May.
Where are the tariff price rises?
Consumer prices rose a modest 2.3 per cent in the year to April, despite months of tough talk on trade and rising border levies.
GDP shrank. The economy didn't
The advance estimate shows GDP shrinking at a rate of −0.3 per cent in the first quarter, and parts of the financial press were quick to call a recession.
The import rush that will shrink GDP
America's goods trade deficit hit a record of about $162 billion in March, as importers rushed cargo into American ports ahead of tariff deadlines.
The Fed quietly stops shrinking its bond pile
From April, the Federal Reserve will let only $5 billion of maturing US Treasury securities run off its balance sheet each month, down from $25 billion.
The Fed sees slower growth and higher prices
The Federal Reserve cut its forecast for 2025 GDP growth to 1.7 per cent and raised its forecast for core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to 2.8 per cent.
The recession forecast caused by gold bars
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model dropped abruptly to an annualised −2.8 per cent for the first quarter, and markets took fright.
Markets swap inflation fear for growth fear
Ten-year Treasury yields have fallen back to between 4.3 and 4.4 per cent over the past fortnight, as markets stopped worrying mainly about inflation and started worrying about growth.
January inflation strikes again
Consumer prices rose 0.5 per cent in January from December, lifting the annual rate to 3.0 per cent and reminding markets that the start of the year is a bad time to bet on calm inflation.
Special Report
Super Bowl: $8m ads, gloomy shoppers
Fox charged a record $8 million per 30-second slot for Super Bowl LIX, a sign that companies will still pay handsomely for a live audience of that size.
600,000 jobs erased from the record
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has taken nearly 600,000 jobs out of the 2024 payroll count in its annual benchmark revision to non-farm payrolls.
How do you measure chaos?
Text-based Economic Policy Uncertainty indices have shot up. Markets are good at pricing known economic risks, but a policy regime that keeps changing is beyond the usual econometric models.
Great jobs data, bad news for bonds
Non-farm payrolls rose by 256,000 in December, a heavy blow to bond investors betting on quick rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Why America borrows like it's in a crisis
The United States ended fiscal year 2024 with a budget deficit of $1.83 trillion, or 6.4 per cent of GDP, at a time of peacetime full employment.
How much inflation could tariffs add?
Wall Street economists finishing their 2025 outlooks are spending most of their time on tariffs.
Special Report
Christmas: A lump of coal from the Fed
Markets hoping for more festive generosity from the Federal Reserve found a lump of coal in their stockings.
The Fed cuts, then takes back half of next year's cuts
The Federal Reserve ended 2024 by cutting rates 25 basis points, to 4.25–4.50 per cent, as expected.
The Fed is about to cut, and sound tough doing it
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, as markets have priced.
The inflation that won't budge
Core consumer prices rose 0.3 per cent in November, the fourth monthly reading in a row at that pace, leaving annual core inflation at 3.3 per cent.
The last mile of inflation is the hardest
Core PCE prices rose at an annualised 2.8 per cent in October, the fourth month in a row that core inflation has stuck near three per cent.
Special Report
Thanksgiving: Why eggs cost more this year
The average cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner for ten fell five per cent to $58.08 this year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation's annual survey.
How low will the Fed go?
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on 7 November, taking the federal funds rate to 4.50–4.75 per cent.
Just 12,000 jobs: what storms and strikes hide
Non-farm payrolls rose by just 12,000 in October. A casual reader might have taken that as a sign the economy was falling off a cliff.
Special Report
Halloween: The Fed cut, and yields went up
The ten-year US Treasury yield touched 4.28 per cent on Halloween, six weeks to the day after the Federal Reserve began easing with a 50-basis-point cut.
The Fed cut rates. Why are mortgage rates rising?
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points, and long-term borrowing costs promptly went up.
254,000 jobs, despite the hurricanes
Non-farm payrolls rose by 254,000 in September, far above forecasts. Earlier months were revised up by 72,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 per cent.
The port strike that could hit Christmas
Some 45,000 members of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) walked out, closing thirty-six container ports along the US East and Gulf Coasts.
The Fed goes big
Jerome Powell opened the easing cycle with a half-point cut at the September FOMC meeting, taking the benchmark rate to 4.75–5.00 per cent.
Cutting from strength, or from fear?
Headline consumer price inflation fell to 2.5 per cent in August, and the Federal Reserve is about to start cutting.
Special Report
Anniversary: Two years of calls, checked
This column began in September 2022, as inflation soared and central banks raised rates in a panic.
The jobs numbers keep getting revised down
Employers added 142,000 non-farm jobs in August, short of consensus forecasts, and the previous two months were revised down by a further 86,000.
Nobody's being fired. Nobody's being hired
American employers have more or less stopped firing people, and more or less stopped hiring them too.
Special Report
Labor Day: Is the job market cracking?
The unemployment rate reached 4.3 per cent in July, nearly a full percentage point above its low for the cycle.
America had 818,000 fewer jobs than we thought
On 21 August the Bureau of Labor Statistics published preliminary benchmark revisions showing that US non-farm payrolls had been overstated by 818,000 jobs in the twelve months to March 2024.
Is it finally time to cut?
July's consumer price index showed headline inflation at 2.9 per cent year-on-year, below three per cent for the first time since March 2021.
Wall Street's fear gauge hits 65. What happened?
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) hit 65 during trading on Monday, 5 August, a level of fear seen before only during the 2008 Lehman collapse and the 2020 pandemic shock.
The recession alarm goes off
US payrolls grew by just 114,000 in July and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3 per cent, a nasty surprise for markets.
Small caps soar as crowded bets unwind
The Russell 2000 index of small companies rose 11.5 per cent in five straight trading sessions after the soft June inflation figures, as money poured out of the biggest technology stocks and into beaten-down small caps.
Prices fall for the first time since 2020
The US consumer price index fell 0.1 per cent in June, its first monthly decline since the early disruption of the 2020 pandemic.
The Fed now sees just one cut
The Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark rate at 5.25–5.50 per cent in June and cut its own forecast for easing this year.
What happens to the euro when the ECB cuts first
Futures on the euro short-term rate (€STR) show near-certainty of a 25-basis-point cut at the European Central Bank's 6 June meeting, and currency desks are positioning for the two central banks to diverge.
How far can Europe cut before the Fed does?
The European Central Bank is getting ready to cut rates before the Federal Reserve.
Special Report
Memorial Day: Petrol prices and the summer inflation bump
American petrol prices averaged roughly $3.59 a gallon going into Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial start of the summer driving season, and motorists have no hedge.
One soft inflation report: signal or noise?
The April consumer price index, published on 15 May, showed inflation at 3.4 per cent year-on-year, with core prices rising 0.3 per cent on the month, the first slowdown in four months.
