Markets & Finance

The AI boom now runs on borrowed money

The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52 per cent on Thursday, to 24,315, its worst day since April 2025.

Gridlock helps bonds until the debt ceiling

Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in Tuesday's midterm elections, CBS News projected, with a handful of races still being counted.

At 7.3%, the housing market stalls

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in America fell last week, to 7.32 per cent from 7.40 per cent, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey published on October 22.

The Treasury rally that oil can't explain

Two weeks ago the yield on the ten-year Treasury note closed at 5.31 per cent, its highest close in about two decades, and talk on Wall Street was of 5.5 per cent and beyond.

India's rate rise is bigger than it looks

The Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since February 2023.

Why Treasury buybacks can't cap the 10-year

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to about 5.2 per cent on Monday, its highest level since July 2007, after closing last week at around 5.18 per cent.

The 10-year hits 5.1%, its highest since 2007

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.104 per cent on 25 September, its highest since the summer of 2007, just before the global financial crisis.

The bond sell-off, explained

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield jumped back to 5.0 per cent after the Federal Reserve's hawkish rate rise, handing heavy duration losses to portfolios around the world.

The rate hike the Fed can't avoid

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.954 per cent on 11 September after a very weak Treasury debt buyback showed that liquidity in the bond market is thinning as inflation refuses to fade.

The 10-year nears 5% as oil nears $100

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.818 per cent on 2 September, edging closer to the 5.0 per cent mark that traders treat as a line in the sand, while Brent crude sat near $99 a barrel.

Warsh speaks, bonds sell

Kevin Warsh gave his first big public speech as Federal Reserve chairman at a monetary policy conference on 25 August, and bond investors did not like it.

The market bets on a Warsh hike

The two-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.24 per cent on 21 August, as markets stopped pricing rate cuts from the Fed and started pricing a rise under its chairman, Kevin Warsh.

Long-term rates climb as Iran talks stall

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose steadily to 4.705 per cent on 10 August, and the 30-year yield broke through 5.251 per cent, after diplomatic talks with Iran broke down entirely.

Back to school: Borrowing costs top 5%

The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury rose to 5.251 per cent on 10 August, just as families were shopping for the new school year.

Banks brace for higher rates

The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 per cent at its 29 July meeting.

The peace deal collapses, and oil jumps

Front-month Brent rose 16 per cent in five trading sessions to $88 a barrel after Middle East peace talks broke up without an agreement on 28 July.

The tariff refund boost to earnings

Court-ordered tariff refunds have taken over the second-quarter earnings calls. Big consumer-products groups and retailers are reporting large net income beats, and the refunds, not their operations, account for all of the gain.

Tariff refunds mean more government borrowing

The Treasury has updated its borrowing plans, and they make for sober reading. Paying the court-ordered $166 billion in tariff refunds will mean a large and immediate increase in net Treasury bill issuance for the rest of the fiscal year.

Is oil being priced in yuan now?

Large volumes of internationally traded crude are now being priced, invoiced and settled only in Chinese yuan.

Peace, maybe: how markets price it

Markets rallied in a jumpy, nervous fashion on 26 May on rumours that a comprehensive peace framework between Washington and Tehran, mediated by the Swiss, was close.

$35bn of refunds, and where it goes

US Customs and Border Protection said on 22 May that it has paid out roughly $35.5 billion in court-ordered tariff refunds to importers.

Iran charges ships a toll, in yuan

Iran says commercial ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz must now pay a "maritime security passage toll" of up to $2 million a transit, and only in Chinese yuan.

Who deserves the tariff refund?

The refunds that will add to America's borrowing

The Treasury switched on the Customs Automated Protest Entity (CAPE) on 20 April.

Tax Day: Refunds from the IRS — and from Customs

On Tax Day 2026 millions of American households sent their annual returns to the Internal Revenue Service.

A ceasefire, and oil falls

Crude fell by more than eight per cent on 7–8 April after officials from Washington and Tehran, along with regional mediators, announced a tentative and temporary ceasefire framework.

What bond markets say about the oil shock

Brent crude crossed $100 after the Hormuz shock, and the Treasury market split in two.

Tariffs go up, refunds go out

Washington ran two stories side by side on 10 March. The administration announced plans to raise Section 122 tariffs to the legal maximum of 15 per cent.

Who gets the $166bn tariff refund?

With the IEEPA tariffs struck down, boardrooms have started fighting over $166 billion in refunds.

Lunar New Year: China keeps the yuan steady

The Lunar New Year holiday emptied mainland China's financial centres, and the People's Bank of China kept the onshore yuan on a tight leash.

The dollar's Warsh moment

The US Dollar Index jumped sharply in a single day after Kevin Warsh was formally nominated as Federal Reserve chairman.

The yen nears Japan's line in the sand

The dollar climbed steadily towards 158 yen, pushing the currency close to the level the Ministry of Finance is widely believed to defend.

Banks cash in on chaos

JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup reported fourth-quarter results with a familiar split.

Japan's 30-year bond hits a record

Yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds hit a record high as Tokyo's bond market sold off again.

The job market's confusing signals

The unemployment rate rose to 4.6 per cent in November, and the jobs report left economists' models in a muddle.

Tariffs are now funding the government

Customs duties raised $195 billion in gross collections in fiscal year 2025, according to Treasury Department receipts.

Companies brace for a tariff refund

More than $130 billion of emergency IEEPA customs duties hang on the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, and company accountants and the Big Four audit firms are busy drafting contingency disclosures.

New Year's Eve: How the dollar lost its shine

The Dollar Index ended the year down 9 per cent, the greenback's worst twelve months since the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

2025 in five charts: gold up, dollar down

The US Dollar Index finished 2025 down about 9 per cent, and spot gold rose more than 65 per cent, a historic gain.

Paramount goes hostile

Paramount Global made a hostile all-cash bid of $30 a share for Warner Bros Discovery on 19 December, an open attempt to wreck the all-stock merger Netflix had already agreed.

Japan's last cheap-money trade

Money-market swaps put a 90 per cent chance on a 25-basis-point rise at the Bank of Japan's 19 December meeting, and currency desks are getting ready.

Japan's bond yields hit 17-year highs

Benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yields jumped to 1.8 per cent, a level last seen seventeen years ago.

Black Friday: Buy now, get a refund later?

AI's biggest spenders feel the credit squeeze

The primary corporate bond market is struggling to digest a flood of debt from the companies spending most on artificial intelligence, and institutional credit portfolios are full.

What if the tariffs have to be refunded?

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on 5 November in the landmark challenge to the administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose across-the-board tariffs.

Meta borrows $30bn for AI

Meta Platforms has sold $30 billion of investment-grade bonds in several tranches, a deal of a size rarely seen, to pay for its artificial intelligence spending plans.

The AI money loop

Look closely at the venture deals financing the artificial intelligence boom and a circular pattern appears, one that recalls the worst speculative habits of the dot-com era.

Money markets flash a warning

In mid-October the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) kept printing above the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) rate.

Diwali: The rupee hits a record low

The Indian rupee fell to a record low of 88.8 to the US dollar as millions celebrated Diwali.

Are there more cockroaches in bank balance sheets?

Zions Bancorporation surprised investors on its third-quarter earnings call with a $50 million charge-off on two commercial real estate loans.