Markets & Finance

Japan's new leader weakens the yen

The yen sold off after Japan elected new political leadership, sending USD/JPY back towards 150, a level traders watch closely.

Gold breaks $3,700

Spot gold broke through $3,700 an ounce and was trading near $3,750, one of the fastest bullion rallies in modern financial history.

911,000 jobs that never existed

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its preliminary annual benchmark revision that payrolls in the twelve months to March 2025 had been overstated by 911,000 jobs.

Japan's bond market turns nervous

Yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) rose to about 3.2 per cent, a sharp jolt for what has long been the calmest and most tightly managed government bond market in the world.

The debt ceiling rises by $5trn

The President has signed the Omnibus Budget and Balanced Border Act (OBBBA), raising the statutory federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion and ending months of political brinkmanship.

Stablecoins could become big buyers of Treasuries

The Senate has passed the Guiding Electronic National Innovation and Uniform Standards (GENIUS) Act, giving dollar-backed stablecoins a formal federal regulatory framework for the first time.

Oil jumps as Israel strikes Iran

Israel struck Iranian military infrastructure and strategic installations on 13 June, and crude oil shot up.

The tax aimed at foreign investors

A new legislative draft on Capitol Hill proposes a withholding tax surcharge of up to 20 per cent on the dividends and interest paid to foreign holders of US corporate equity and debt.

America loses its last AAA rating

Moody's Investors Service cut the federal government's long-term issuer rating from Aaa to Aa1 on 16 May, taking away America's last top-grade sovereign credit rating.

China holds the yuan steady

The People's Bank of China is holding the onshore yuan near 7.20 per dollar, using firm daily fixings and dollar sales by state banks to keep it from weakening.

"Sell America": are foreign investors walking away?

The US Dollar Index has dropped to a three-year low near 98, and traders on currency and government bond desks around the world have started talking about a 'Sell America' trade.

The dollar stops acting like a safe haven

The Dollar Index has fallen below 100 even though benchmark 10-year Treasury yields are hovering near 4.5 per cent.

Stocks and bonds fall together. That's the problem

Ten-year US Treasury yields rose by roughly 50 basis points in five trading days this week while share prices fell.

The Fed quietly stops shrinking its bond pile

From April, the Federal Reserve will let only $5 billion of maturing US Treasury securities run off its balance sheet each month, down from $25 billion.

The market's biggest names fall hardest

The S&P 500 has fallen ten per cent from its recent high, the textbook definition of a correction.

Germany opens its wallet, and bonds tumble

German 10-year Bund yields jumped by roughly 30 basis points in a single day after Berlin announced a framework to reform its constitutional debt brake ('Schuldenbremse').

The recession forecast caused by gold bars

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model dropped abruptly to an annualised −2.8 per cent for the first quarter, and markets took fright.

Markets swap inflation fear for growth fear

Ten-year Treasury yields have fallen back to between 4.3 and 4.4 per cent over the past fortnight, as markets stopped worrying mainly about inflation and started worrying about growth.

Why the dollar isn't rising on tariffs

The US Dollar Index has stalled near 108, down from cyclical highs above 110, even as the administration's trade threats turn into actual decrees.

DeepSeek's shock sends investors running to bonds

Nvidia lost $589 billion of market value on 27 January, the largest one-day fall for any company in history.

Wall Street banks bet on deregulation

JPMorgan Chase earned a record net income of nearly $58 billion in 2024, the high point of a long boom in net interest income.

Britain's borrowing costs hit a 27-year high

The yield on British 30-year government bonds has risen above 5.47 per cent, its highest in twenty-seven years, and the Treasury in Whitehall has noticed.

Great jobs data, bad news for bonds

Non-farm payrolls rose by 256,000 in December, a heavy blow to bond investors betting on quick rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

New Year's Eve: The dollar's big year

The US Dollar Index (DXY) ends 2024 up more than seven per cent, beating major developed and emerging-market currencies alike.

Boxing Day: Why money markets get jumpy at year-end

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has started jumping about again as the year ends.

France now borrows at higher rates than Greece

On 28 November the yield on French ten-year government bonds (OATs) rose above Greece’s borrowing cost for the first time in modern history.

Black Friday: Shoppers race to beat the tariffs

Companies are stockpiling before the tariffs hit

American companies are stockpiling. Purchasing managers expect heavy import tariffs soon after the inauguration in January, and corporate treasurers are trying to get ahead of them by bringing forward orders from Asia and Europe.

Can a stronger dollar cancel out tariffs?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed back towards 107 since the election, and trade economists are asking an old textbook question.

The winners from a Republican sweep

The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose more than thirteen per cent on the day after Donald Trump's election win, the best session for regional bank shares in years.

Election night for the bond market

The ten-year Treasury yield jumped sixteen basis points to 4.44 per cent overnight as returns confirmed Donald Trump's clear victory and a Republican sweep of Congress.

Halloween: The Fed cut, and yields went up

The ten-year US Treasury yield touched 4.28 per cent on Halloween, six weeks to the day after the Federal Reserve began easing with a 50-basis-point cut.

Election jitters push up long-term rates

Ten-year Treasury yields have climbed above 4.20 per cent as the US presidential election nears, and almost all of the rise comes from the term premium.

Banks' interest income bottoms out

Third-quarter results from the biggest US commercial banks show the windfall from high interest rates is fading.

The Fed cut rates. Why are mortgage rates rising?

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points, and long-term borrowing costs promptly went up.

China finally fires its stimulus bazooka

Beijing has given up on piecemeal stimulus. The property slump shows no sign of ending, deflation is deepening and growth targets are slipping away.

Half a point or a quarter?

The Federal Reserve goes into its September meeting divided over how to begin cutting rates: with the standard 25 basis points, or a more forceful 50.

Labor Day: Is the job market cracking?

The unemployment rate reached 4.3 per cent in July, nearly a full percentage point above its low for the cycle.

The yield curve un-inverts. Is that good news?

On 5 August the gap between two-year and ten-year Treasury yields briefly turned positive, for the first time since July 2022.

The carry trade that blew up

The yen carry trade unwound in early August, and markets around the world lurched.

Japan hikes into the world's most crowded trade

The Bank of Japan surprised markets on 31 July by raising its benchmark interest rate to 0.25 per cent and announcing plans to halve its monthly bond purchases.

Japan steps in to save the yen

Japan's Ministry of Finance intervened in the currency market again on 11 July, moving straight after softer-than-expected US consumer price figures came out.

Independence Day: Is the dollar losing its crown?

The dollar's share of allocated global foreign exchange reserves has slipped to roughly fifty-eight per cent, its lowest in nearly three decades, according to the International Monetary Fund's COFER data.

The "Trump trade" hits bonds

How a presidential debate moves the bond market

Joe Biden's performance in the 27 June presidential debate against Donald Trump moved markets as well as voters.

Nvidia becomes the world's most valuable company

Nvidia overtook Microsoft on 18 June to become the world's most valuable listed company, with a market value of $3.34 trillion.

Is France the eurozone's next crisis?

The spread between French ten-year government bonds and German Bunds has widened to eighty basis points, its widest since the sovereign debt crisis of 2012.

Macron's gamble spooks French bond markets

French bonds sold off hard after Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called snap parliamentary elections, following a heavy defeat in the European elections.

Nvidia hits $3trn, and index funds are along for the ride

Nvidia's market value passed $3 trillion on 5 June, overtaking Apple to make it the second most valuable company in the world.

What happens to the euro when the ECB cuts first

Futures on the euro short-term rate (€STR) show near-certainty of a 25-basis-point cut at the European Central Bank's 6 June meeting, and currency desks are positioning for the two central banks to diverge.