The Lombard Review

U.S.

The American economy, from Washington policy to household finances and the holiday calendar.

Special Report

Labor Day: Hiring is strong enough to worry the Fed

Strong labour data forces tightening

U.S.

What Americans now pay in tariffs

Two-tier rates plus exemptions

U.S.

America's emergency oil is running out

Strategic buffer exhausted

Special Report

Independence Day: Energy independence, tested

Shale response vs inventory draw

Special Report

Memorial Day: Summer driving at $100 oil

Fuel costs squeeze real income

Markets & Finance

The refunds that will add to America's borrowing

Refunds raise bill issuance

Special Report

Black Friday: Buy now, get a refund later?

Contingent refunds on duties

Special Report

Thanksgiving: Beef, tariffs and the holiday table

Food-tariff rollback pass-through

Special Report

Labor Day: Hiring has stalled

Hiring freeze without layoffs

Special Report

Independence Day: The real cost of the "big beautiful bill"

Growth feedback assumptions

U.S.

America bombs Iran. Oil falls

Contained retaliation deflates premium

Special Report

Memorial Day: Downgraded, and still spending

Rating loss meets fiscal bill

Markets & Finance

America loses its last AAA rating

Rating symmetry across agencies

Markets & Finance

"Sell America": are foreign investors walking away?

Term premium on governance risk

Politics

Steel tariffs squeeze American manufacturers

Input tariffs compress downstream margins

Economy

Why America borrows like it's in a crisis

Procyclical fiscal stance

Business

Biden blocks the US Steel deal

Blocked deal triggers termination payment

Business

US Steel's deal is in limbo

Political veto as deal variable

Special Report

Black Friday: Shoppers race to beat the tariffs

Import pull-forward, strong dollar

Special Report

Thanksgiving: Why eggs cost more this year

Supply shocks in food CPI

Politics

A 60% tariff is a tax on Americans

Incidence of China tariffs

Special Report

Labor Day: Is the job market cracking?

Labour-supply vs demand weakness

Economy

America had 818,000 fewer jobs than we thought

Business-formation model overstates jobs

Special Report

Independence Day: Is the dollar losing its crown?

Reserve diversification pace

U.S.

America's deficit won't shrink

Structural deficit under divided government

Special Report

Memorial Day: Petrol prices and the summer inflation bump

Seasonal energy distortion

U.S.

Japan wants US Steel. Washington may say no

National-security review discounts premium

Special Report

Black Friday: Retailers finally have the right amount of stock

Lean stock restores margin

Special Report

Thanksgiving: Bond investors finally have something to be thankful for

Duration rally eases conditions

U.S.

Moody's warns on America's debt

Rating drift as slow-moving term premium

U.S.

Washington's chaos now has a price

Legislative dysfunction as fiscal premium

Special Report

Labor Day: The job market is cooling the right way

Vacancies fall without unemployment spike

Economy

America is borrowing like it's in a recession. It isn't

Full-employment deficits pressure term premium

Markets & Finance

America loses its AAA again. Does it matter?

Governance premium, not default risk

Special Report

Independence Day: Washington is paying factories to come home

IRA/CHIPS lower hurdle rates

Special Report

Memorial Day: The debt deal is done. Now comes the bill

Ceiling resolution reprices bills

Personal Finance

Nobody can agree how much savings Americans have left

Trend-choice sensitivity of savings estimates

U.S.

When does America run out of money?

TGA depletion and payment prioritisation

Markets & Finance

Markets start pricing an American default

Technical default priced in 1Y contracts

Markets & Finance

America's banks are sitting on $620bn of hidden losses

Unrealised losses hidden by accounting

U.S.

America hits its debt limit again. The countdown starts

Extraordinary measures drain TGA

Special Report

Black Friday: Shop now, pay later, default sooner

Revolving credit funds holiday spend

Special Report

Thanksgiving: Why your turkey cost 20% more

Avian-flu supply shock hits food margins