Inflation

Poorer by the hour, richer by the payroll

American employers added 165,000 jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday.

Oil fell. The Fed's problem didn't

Oil fell by more than 7 per cent on Monday, its sharpest one-day drop in months, after Tehran said contacts with Washington aimed at ending the eight-month conflict were continuing.

India's inflation jump has a freight problem

India's consumer prices rose 5.54 per cent in the year to September, up from 4.83 per cent in August, according to provisional figures published by the Ministry of Statistics on October 12.

Gasoline did most of September's inflation

American consumer prices rose 0.6 per cent in September, after 0.4 per cent in August, and 3.7 per cent from a year earlier, up from 3.4 per cent in August.

The inflation drop that came from a rulebook

The rate hike the Fed can't avoid

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.954 per cent on 11 September after a very weak Treasury debt buyback showed that liquidity in the bond market is thinning as inflation refuses to fade.

Is the oil shock turning into wage inflation?

Headline consumer price inflation rose to 3.4 per cent in July, pushed up by hundred-dollar crude.

Warsh speaks, bonds sell

Kevin Warsh gave his first big public speech as Federal Reserve chairman at a monetary policy conference on 25 August, and bond investors did not like it.

Is it oil or tariffs pushing prices up?

A new statistical breakdown of the mid-2026 rise in inflation takes up the question that divides the Federal Reserve.

Diesel prices are the warning sign

Wholesale diesel crack spreads have climbed steeply and without pause, and energy analysts and industrial economists think they matter more than the headline Brent price that most commentators watch.

How much will oil push up prices?

Brent crude is trading well above $100 a barrel for the first time since August 2022, and central bank economists are rushing to redo their estimates of how much will feed through into wider inflation.

Boxing Day: Holiday shopping with missing data

Shops opened for the Boxing Day sales at the end of a holiday season run almost entirely without official data.

The inflation data with a missing month

Headline inflation eased to 2.7 per cent year-on-year in November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

One inflation report in a data blackout

The federal government shutdown, now several weeks old, has halted most of the statistical agencies.

Powell opens the door to cuts

Jerome Powell used his annual speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium to signal that the Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates.

Tariffs finally show up in prices

June's consumer price index settled the argument over whether tariffs raise prices.

Prime Day: Four days of discounts, and tariffs

Amazon stretched Prime Day to four days this year and filled it with millions of promotions.

Oil jumps as Israel strikes Iran

Israel struck Iranian military infrastructure and strategic installations on 13 June, and crude oil shot up.

Tariffs still aren't showing up in prices

May's consumer price index put headline inflation at 2.4 per cent year-on-year, and once again the tariff-driven surge that many had expected failed to appear.

Walmart warns prices are going up

Walmart used its first-quarter results to warn that it can no longer absorb tariffs and that shelf prices for consumer goods, clothing and general merchandise are about to rise sharply.

The Fed sees slower growth and higher prices

The Federal Reserve cut its forecast for 2025 GDP growth to 1.7 per cent and raised its forecast for core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to 2.8 per cent.

Germany opens its wallet, and bonds tumble

German 10-year Bund yields jumped by roughly 30 basis points in a single day after Berlin announced a framework to reform its constitutional debt brake ('Schuldenbremse').

Markets swap inflation fear for growth fear

Ten-year Treasury yields have fallen back to between 4.3 and 4.4 per cent over the past fortnight, as markets stopped worrying mainly about inflation and started worrying about growth.

January inflation strikes again

Consumer prices rose 0.5 per cent in January from December, lifting the annual rate to 3.0 per cent and reminding markets that the start of the year is a bad time to bet on calm inflation.

How much inflation could tariffs add?

Wall Street economists finishing their 2025 outlooks are spending most of their time on tariffs.

The Fed cuts, then takes back half of next year's cuts

The Federal Reserve ended 2024 by cutting rates 25 basis points, to 4.25–4.50 per cent, as expected.

The inflation that won't budge

Core consumer prices rose 0.3 per cent in November, the fourth monthly reading in a row at that pace, leaving annual core inflation at 3.3 per cent.

The last mile of inflation is the hardest

Core PCE prices rose at an annualised 2.8 per cent in October, the fourth month in a row that core inflation has stuck near three per cent.

Thanksgiving: Why eggs cost more this year

The average cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner for ten fell five per cent to $58.08 this year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation's annual survey.

The Fed cut rates. Why are mortgage rates rising?

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points, and long-term borrowing costs promptly went up.

Is it finally time to cut?

July's consumer price index showed headline inflation at 2.9 per cent year-on-year, below three per cent for the first time since March 2021.

Prices fall for the first time since 2020

The US consumer price index fell 0.1 per cent in June, its first monthly decline since the early disruption of the 2020 pandemic.

Macron's gamble spooks French bond markets

French bonds sold off hard after Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called snap parliamentary elections, following a heavy defeat in the European elections.

Memorial Day: Petrol prices and the summer inflation bump

American petrol prices averaged roughly $3.59 a gallon going into Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial start of the summer driving season, and motorists have no hedge.

One soft inflation report: signal or noise?

The April consumer price index, published on 15 May, showed inflation at 3.4 per cent year-on-year, with core prices rising 0.3 per cent on the month, the first slowdown in four months.

Slow growth, sticky prices: a whiff of stagflation

US GDP grew at an annualized 1.6 per cent in the first quarter, well below forecasts, while the core PCE price index rose at an annualized 3.7 per cent.

Three hot months: what the data now says

January's hot inflation reading could be put down to seasonal quirks. March's cannot.

Inflation's stall isn't a seasonal fluke

For the first months of 2024, commentators blamed sticky inflation on leftover January seasonal effects and quirks in contract resets.

A hot inflation report hits short-term bonds

Headline inflation came in at 3.1 per cent in January and core prices rose by an uncomfortably hot 0.4 per cent on the month.

Lunar New Year: China's stock market can't escape falling prices

Chinese consumer prices fell 0.8 per cent in January from a year earlier, the steepest drop in fifteen years, and the country's stock markets enter the Year of the Dragon with little to celebrate.

Did inflation's progress survive the revisions?

On 9 February the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its annual benchmark revisions to the consumer price index, and bond traders watched nervously.

Why January inflation always looks bad

Markets have a bad habit of overreacting to January inflation figures. January consumer price data have tended to surprise on the upside, and each time bond desks panic for a while.

Inflation is already at target, if you squint

The October core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.5 per cent from a year earlier, still uncomfortably above the Fed's statutory goal.

Inflation hits 3.2%. The last mile begins

Headline inflation fell to 3.2 per cent in October, and core prices rose at their slowest annual pace in two years.

Bonds finally pay more than inflation

Ten-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) now yield more than two per cent, for the first time since the financial crisis of 2009.

China's prices are falling. Its currency could be next

Chinese consumer prices fell 0.3 per cent year-on-year in July, and the People's Bank of China now faces an awkward choice.

Inflation hits 3%. The easy part is over

Headline US consumer price inflation fell to 3.0 per cent in June, and plenty of commentators declared the war won.

Inflation is falling without a recession. Can it last?

Consumer price inflation is slowing while the US economy still adds more than 200,000 jobs a month, and the optimists have found their gospel.

Prime Day: What Amazon's discounts say about inflation

Shoppers spent an estimated $12.7 billion over Amazon's two-day Prime Day, an event that has become a rough gauge of how American consumers are holding up and what retailers can charge.

Banks passed the stress test. Now comes the real test

All twenty-three banks in the Federal Reserve's annual stress test passed in late June, showing on paper that they could survive a severe fall in commercial property prices and a global recession.