Inflation
Warsh speaks, bonds sell
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered his first major public address since taking office, speaking at an institutional monetary policy conference on 25 August.
How much will oil push up prices?
With Brent crude soaring comfortably past $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022, quantitative econometricians and central bank modeling desks are urgently revising second-round inflation pass-through frameworks.
Boxing Day: Holiday shopping with missing data
As retail stores threw open their doors for Boxing Day clearances, the commercial sector concluded a holiday season operating in complete econometric darkness.
The inflation data with a missing month
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November consumer price index showing headline inflation moderating to 2.7 per cent year-on-year.
One inflation report in a data blackout
Amid a grueling, multi-week federal government shutdown that paralyzed economic statistical agencies, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was permitted an emergency, one-off operational exception to release the September consumer price index.
Powell opens the door to cuts
Tariffs finally show up in prices
The statistical debate over tariff inflation was officially settled by the June consumer price index, as tariffed goods categories recorded aggressive, undeniable price accelerations.
Prime Day: Four days of discounts, and tariffs
Amazon’s annual Prime Day shopping event expanded into an unprecedented four-day commercial extravaganza, offering millions of aggressive digital promotions.
Tariffs still aren't showing up in prices
The release of the May consumer price index, showing headline inflation advancing at a restrained 2.4 per cent year-on-year, once again confounded expectations of an immediate tariff-induced inflationary surge.
Walmart warns prices are going up
The Fed sees slower growth and higher prices
The Federal Open Market Committee’s updated Summary of Economic Projections delivered a sobering reality check to market participants hoping for a smooth economic landing.
Germany opens its wallet, and bonds tumble
A multi-decade pillar of European fiscal austerity collapsed in a single trading session.
Markets swap inflation fear for growth fear
Financial markets have undergone a decisive psychological pivot over the past fortnight: the primary driver of asset prices has shifted from inflation anxiety to acute growth deceleration fears.
January inflation strikes again
A blistering 0.5 per cent month-on-month advance in the January consumer price index, lifting the headline year-on-year rate to 3.0 per cent, reminded financial markets that inflation seasonality remains a persistent monetary hazard.
How much inflation could tariffs add?
As Wall Street economic desks finalize their 2025 outlooks, quantitative modeling has shifted entirely to evaluating the macroeconomic consequences of prospective tariff scenarios.
The Fed cuts, then takes back half of next year's cuts
The Federal Reserve concluded 2024 with a calculated monetary retreat.
The inflation that won't budge
The last mile of inflation is the hardest
The October core PCE price index advanced at an annualized rate of 2.8 per cent, marking the fourth consecutive month that core inflation has remained cemented near three per cent.
Thanksgiving: Why eggs cost more this year
As American families gathered for Thanksgiving dinner, the annual American Farm Bureau Federation survey provided an interesting study in agricultural price dynamics.
The Fed cut rates. Why are mortgage rates rising?
In one of the most counterintuitive market moves of recent years, the Federal Reserve’s jumbo 50-basis-point interest rate cut was immediately followed by a sharp surge in long-term borrowing costs.
Is it finally time to cut?
The July consumer price index confirmed that the inflationary dragon has been subdued, with headline inflation dropping below three per cent to 2.9 per cent year-on-year for the first time since March 2021.
Prices fall for the first time since 2020
For the first time since the initial disruptions of the 2020 pandemic, the US headline consumer price index registered an outright month-on-month decline, falling 0.1 per cent in June.
Macron's gamble spooks French bond markets
Emmanuel Macron’s shock decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call snap parliamentary elections following a crushing defeat in European elections sent European sovereign debt markets into an immediate panic.
Memorial Day: Petrol prices and the summer inflation bump
Memorial Day weekend traditionally marks the unofficial commencement of the American summer driving season, and with retail gasoline prices averaging roughly $3.59 per gallon, motorists are absorbing an unhedged holiday tax.
One soft inflation report: signal or noise?
Fixed-income markets experienced an immense wave of relief on 15 May, as the April consumer price index printed at 3.4 per cent year-on-year, while core prices slowed to 0.3 per cent month-on-month—the first deceleration in four months.
Slow growth, sticky prices: a whiff of stagflation
The first-quarter economic accounts delivered an uncomfortable combination of figures that evoked unpleasant memories of 1970s stagflation.
Three hot months: what the data now says
Macroeconomic analysts who dismissed January’s hot inflation figures as seasonal noise have run out of statistical excuses.
Inflation's stall isn't a seasonal fluke
Financial commentators spent the opening months of 2024 attributing sticky inflation prints to residual January seasonal noise and contract resetting quirks.
A hot inflation report hits short-term bonds
Fixed-income bulls received a rude awakening from the January consumer price index, as headline inflation printed at 3.1 per cent and core prices surged by an uncomfortably hot 0.4 per cent month-on-month.
Lunar New Year: China's stock market can't escape falling prices
As China enters the Year of the Dragon, domestic equity markets are finding little reason for celebratory animal spirits.
Did inflation's progress survive the revisions?
Fixed-income markets held their breath on 9 February as the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its annual benchmark revisions to the consumer price index.
Why January inflation always looks bad
Financial markets have an unfortunate habit of overreacting to January inflation prints.
Inflation is already at target, if you squint
Disinflation has arrived, but its precise velocity depends on which statistical lens an analyst chooses to apply.
Inflation hits 3.2%. The last mile begins
The October consumer price index provided welcome relief to equity bulls, with headline inflation dropping to 3.2 per cent and core prices advancing at their slowest annual pace in two years.
Bonds finally pay more than inflation
The sovereign bond market has crossed a monumental psychological threshold.
China's prices are falling. Its currency could be next
Deflation is officially stalking the Chinese economy, and the People’s Bank of China faces an acute monetary trilemma.
Inflation hits 3%. The easy part is over
When headline US consumer price inflation dropped to 3.0 per cent in June, financial commentators rushed to declare the war on inflation won.
Inflation is falling without a recession. Can it last?
Macroeconomic optimists have found their gospel in the recent deceleration of consumer price inflation.
Prime Day: What Amazon's discounts say about inflation
Amazon’s annual Prime Day has grown into an informal gauge of American consumer resilience and retail pricing dynamics.
Banks passed the stress test. Now comes the real test
The Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests have evolved into an elaborate regulatory set-piece.
The stubborn inflation the Fed can't shake
For Federal Reserve officials scanning the inflationary horizon, the persistent stickiness of core services is becoming an analytical obsession.
Britain's mortgage crunch returns
For British mortgage holders, the benign era of negligible debt service has ended with terrifying velocity.
Memorial Day: The debt deal is done. Now comes the bill
Political theatre in Washington has concluded with its customary anticlimax, but the financial reckoning is only just entering the order books.
Why core inflation stopped falling
The publication of April’s consumer price index delivered a headline inflation rate that moderated to 4.9 per cent year-on-year—the first sub-5 per cent print in two years.
OPEC just made the Fed's job harder
On Sunday, 2 April, the OPEC+ alliance delivered an unexpected geopolitical thunderbolt across global commodity markets, announcing a surprise production cut of 1.16 million barrels per day.
