Anniversary: Our first year, graded
Calls vs realised curve
Key dataFFR 5.25–5.50% vs 2.25–2.50%
One year ago, this column commenced with a simple premise: that the most aggressive central bank tightening cycle in forty years would inevitably collide with private balance sheets. Twelve months later, the federal funds rate sits between 5.25 and 5.50 per cent, compared to 2.25 to 2.50 per cent when we began. The market consensus that anticipated an immediate recession and early rate cuts has been utterly confounded by economic resilience.
The Realised Path
Yet defying recession is not synonymous with escaping consequences. Over the past twelve months, the yield curve has inverted violently, three major regional banks have collapsed into receivership, and the cost of sovereign debt service has doubled. The financial system has absorbed the initial rate shock through legacy cash buffers and fixed-rate hedges; the true test begins as those protections expire.
A year of hyper-tightening has demonstrated the surprising resilience of private balance sheets, but it has merely delayed the refinancing reckoning rather than averted it.
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