Slow growth, sticky prices: a whiff of stagflation
Weak growth, firm core
Economy
The Federal Reserve, inflation, jobs and growth: analysis of the economic cycle and the data behind it.
The market gives up on rate cuts
Curve removes 2024 easing
Three hot months: what the data now says
Posterior on disinflation path shifts
Powell admits cuts will take longer
Guidance shift after three hot prints
Immigration changes the jobs maths
Immigration raises trend job growth
Inflation's stall isn't a seasonal fluke
Persistence, not seasonality
The Fed nudges its long-run rate higher
Gradual r* revision in SEP
Japan ends negative rates
First BoJ hike in 17 years
The Fed's banking lifeline expires
Loss of par collateral facility
Why job numbers keep getting revised down
Response-rate bias in initial estimates
The new normal for interest rates is higher
Fiscal and demographic drivers lift r*
Japan and Britain slip into recession
Low-growth equilibrium in advanced economies
A hot inflation report hits short-term bonds
Front-end reprices cut timing
Special Report
Lunar New Year: China's stock market can't escape falling prices
Price deflation depresses earnings
Did inflation's progress survive the revisions?
Seasonal factor updates redistribute inflation
353,000 jobs and no March cut
Labour strength delays first cut
3.3% growth: too good to be true?
Output vs hours decomposition
Japan wants pay rises before rate rises
Shunto outcome as hike precondition
Banks borrow from the Fed to earn more from the Fed
Facility rate below IORB
Why January inflation always looks bad
Start-of-year pricing biases SA data
Shipping costs double as ships avoid the Red Sea
Cape route adds ~10 days, lifts rates
The Fed's money drain is about to get real
RRP buffer exhaustion shifts drain to reserves
Special Report
New Year: Markets want six rate cuts. They'll be disappointed
Market path vs committee
2023: The recession that never came
Consensus recession call failed
Red Sea attacks threaten cheaper goods
Rerouting raises freight and lead times
The Fed pivots
Dot shift validates market
Can the Fed really cut six times?
Market path vs committee reaction function
Inflation is already at target, if you squint
Annualisation window changes inference
A Fed hawk hints at cuts
Real-rate drift argues for cuts
Inflation hits 3.2%. The last mile begins
Core disinflation stalls near 4%
The recession rule that's flashing amber
Unemployment rise triggers recession rule
Strong jobs, falling bonds
Strong data raises real yields
The Fed takes back half its rate cuts
Removed cuts reprice curve
Is "higher for longer" already priced in?
Energy re-accelerates headline
Unemployment rose, for a good reason
Labour supply, not layoffs, drives rate
Saudi Arabia keeps oil above $90
Voluntary supply cuts sustain headline
Special Report
Labor Day: The job market is cooling the right way
Vacancies fall without unemployment spike
Bonds finally pay more than inflation
Positive real yields compress equity premium
Economists can't agree on where rates should settle
Filter-based vs forward-rate r*
America is borrowing like it's in a recession. It isn't
Full-employment deficits pressure term premium
Is the economy really this strong?
GDP vs GDI gap
One more hike, then what?
Loss function favours holding over hiking
Inflation hits 3%. The easy part is over
Favourable base effects exhausted
Inflation is falling without a recession. Can it last?
Supply healing without labour slack
Special Report
Prime Day: What Amazon's discounts say about inflation
Discounting confirms goods deflation
The stubborn inflation the Fed can't shake
Autoregressive decay of services inflation
