Economy
Oil fell. The Fed's problem didn't
Oil fell by more than 7 per cent on Monday, its sharpest one-day drop in months, after Tehran said contacts with Washington aimed at ending the eight-month conflict were continuing.
The Fed
Economy
The Fed gets two signals, and they disagree
For a week at the start of October the bond market was sure of one thing: the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates again this month.
Economy
The Fed hikes, and its chair skips the dot plot
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 per cent on 18 September.
Economy
The rate hike the Fed can't avoid
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.954 per cent on 11 September after a very weak Treasury debt buyback showed that liquidity in the bond market is thinning as inflation refuses to fade.
Special Report
Labor Day: Hiring is strong enough to worry the Fed
The August employment report, landing just before Labor Day, showed an American jobs market in fine health.
Economy
Blowout jobs, tighter Fed
Non-farm payrolls for August came in far above every Wall Street forecast. The report showed an economy in no need of help, and it left little room for anyone still arguing that the Fed should ease.
Markets & Finance
Warsh speaks, bonds sell
Kevin Warsh gave his first big public speech as Federal Reserve chairman at a monetary policy conference on 25 August, and bond investors did not like it.
Markets & Finance
The market bets on a Warsh hike
The two-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.24 per cent on 21 August, as markets stopped pricing rate cuts from the Fed and started pricing a rise under its chairman, Kevin Warsh.
Economy
Three Fed officials want a hike
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9–3 on 29 July to leave rates unchanged, and all three dissenters wanted an immediate rise of 25 basis points.
Economy
The Fed's hawks start to multiply
The Federal Open Market Committee ended its June meeting with the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75 per cent.
Economy
What does Warsh want?
Jerome Powell's term as Fed chairman formally ends in mid-May, and markets have turned their full attention to Kevin Warsh, who takes over.
Economy
Powell's final meeting
Jerome Powell chaired his last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on 28 April, closing an eight-year term that took in a pandemic, the worst inflation in decades and a run of trade wars.
Economy
The Fed faces a war shock
The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 per cent at its March meeting.
Markets & Finance
The dollar's Warsh moment
The US Dollar Index jumped sharply in a single day after Kevin Warsh was formally nominated as Federal Reserve chairman.
Explainer
Who is Kevin Warsh?
On 30 January the White House nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chairman.
Economy
One speech that flipped the Fed odds
A single speech by John Williams, president of the New York Fed, reset market expectations for Federal Reserve policy on 21 November.
Economy
The Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet
At its October meeting the Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, taking the federal funds target to 3.75–4.00 per cent.
Politics
A shutdown would leave the Fed flying blind
Congress is heading for a 1 October funding deadline with no compromise in sight, and the Federal Reserve is bracing for the consequences.
Economy
The Fed cuts, cautiously
The Federal Open Market Committee cut the federal funds target by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00 to 4.25 per cent, the first move in a new easing cycle.
Economy
Trump's man joins the Fed
The Senate confirmed Stephen Miran to a vacant seat on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on 15 September.
Politics
Trump moves to fire a Fed governor
On 25 August President Donald Trump moved to remove Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, before her term expires, and she has said she will fight the dismissal.
Economy
Powell opens the door to cuts
Jerome Powell used his annual speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium to signal that the Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates.
Economy
A divided Fed
The Federal Reserve's June Summary of Economic Projections shows a committee split down the middle.
Markets & Finance
The Fed quietly stops shrinking its bond pile
From April, the Federal Reserve will let only $5 billion of maturing US Treasury securities run off its balance sheet each month, down from $25 billion.
Economy
The Fed sees slower growth and higher prices
The Federal Reserve cut its forecast for 2025 GDP growth to 1.7 per cent and raised its forecast for core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to 2.8 per cent.
Special Report
Christmas: A lump of coal from the Fed
Markets hoping for more festive generosity from the Federal Reserve found a lump of coal in their stockings.
Economy
The Fed cuts, then takes back half of next year's cuts
The Federal Reserve ended 2024 by cutting rates 25 basis points, to 4.25–4.50 per cent, as expected.
Economy
The Fed is about to cut, and sound tough doing it
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, as markets have priced.
Economy
How low will the Fed go?
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on 7 November, taking the federal funds rate to 4.50–4.75 per cent.
Special Report
Halloween: The Fed cut, and yields went up
The ten-year US Treasury yield touched 4.28 per cent on Halloween, six weeks to the day after the Federal Reserve began easing with a 50-basis-point cut.
Markets & Finance
Banks' interest income bottoms out
Third-quarter results from the biggest US commercial banks show the windfall from high interest rates is fading.
Markets & Finance
The Fed cut rates. Why are mortgage rates rising?
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points, and long-term borrowing costs promptly went up.
Economy
The Fed goes big
Jerome Powell opened the easing cycle with a half-point cut at the September FOMC meeting, taking the benchmark rate to 4.75–5.00 per cent.
Economy
The Fed now sees just one cut
The Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark rate at 5.25–5.50 per cent in June and cut its own forecast for easing this year.
Economy
How far can Europe cut before the Fed does?
The European Central Bank is getting ready to cut rates before the Federal Reserve.
Markets & Finance
The Fed slows its balance-sheet shrinking
The Federal Reserve said at its May meeting that it will slow its quantitative tightening (QT) programme from June.
Markets & Finance
The market gives up on rate cuts
Bond investors started the year pricing six Federal Reserve rate cuts. They have now priced out almost all of them.
Economy
Powell admits cuts will take longer
Jerome Powell conceded on 16 April that persistent inflation will delay interest rate cuts, something the bond market had been pricing for weeks.
Economy
The Fed nudges its long-run rate higher
The Federal Open Market Committee left its policy rate at 5.25–5.50 per cent in March.
Markets & Finance
The Fed's banking lifeline expires
The Federal Reserve stopped making new loans under its Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on 11 March, closing the emergency facility it opened during the regional banking panic of 2023.
Economy
Banks borrow from the Fed to earn more from the Fed
Banks found a profitable arbitrage in an obscure corner of the Federal Reserve's plumbing.
Economy
The Fed's money drain is about to get real
The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) programme has taken nearly $1 trillion of government and mortgage debt off its books without upsetting the financial plumbing.
Special Report
New Year: Markets want six rate cuts. They'll be disappointed
Forward markets start 2024 pricing in six quarter-point rate cuts, the first as early as March.
Economy
The Fed pivots
Jerome Powell completed his change of tune at the December FOMC meeting and handed markets an early Christmas present.
Economy
Can the Fed really cut six times?
Fed funds futures are pricing in as many as six 25-basis-point cuts in 2024, which would take the policy rate from 5.4 per cent to below 4.0 per cent.
Economy
A Fed hawk hints at cuts
Bond yields tumbled after Christopher Waller, one of the Federal Reserve's most influential and hawkish governors, said the central bank could start lowering rates if disinflation carried on for several more months.
Economy
The Fed takes back half its rate cuts
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at its September meeting and still managed to send a hawkish message.
Economy
The stubborn inflation the Fed can't shake
Core PCE inflation ran at 4.6 per cent year-on-year in May, and Federal Reserve officials can think of little else.
Economy
What the Fed's forecasts really say
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate in June but raised the median projection for where rates will peak to 5.6 per cent.
Economy
The Fed wants to pause without looking soft
Headline inflation has slowed to 4.0 per cent year-on-year, which gives the Federal Reserve a reasonable case for pausing its rate increases at the June meeting.
