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Halloween: The Fed cut, and yields went up

The ten-year US Treasury yield touched 4.28 per cent on Halloween, six weeks to the day after the Federal Reserve began easing with a 50-basis-point cut.

Trump vs Harris: the bill for each

Donald Trump’s agenda would add an estimated $7.5 trillion to the national debt over ten years, and Kamala Harris’s about $3.5 trillion.

Tesla's profits: look closer

Tesla shares jumped twenty-two per cent after the company reported that third-quarter automotive gross margins had widened to 17.1 per cent.

Election jitters push up long-term rates

Ten-year Treasury yields have climbed above 4.20 per cent as the US presidential election nears, and almost all of the rise comes from the term premium.

Who really paid for Trump's first tariffs

With big new tariffs at the centre of the political debate, research on the 2018–2019 trade war gives a clear answer on who pays for import duties.

How Chinese goods reach America through Mexico

China’s share of US merchandise imports has fallen from twenty-one per cent in 2017 to under fourteen per cent today.

Banks' interest income bottoms out

Third-quarter results from the biggest US commercial banks show the windfall from high interest rates is fading.

The Fed cut rates. Why are mortgage rates rising?

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points, and long-term borrowing costs promptly went up.

254,000 jobs, despite the hurricanes

Non-farm payrolls rose by 254,000 in September, far above forecasts. Earlier months were revised up by 72,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 per cent.

The port strike that could hit Christmas

Some 45,000 members of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) walked out, closing thirty-six container ports along the US East and Gulf Coasts.

Microsoft reopens Three Mile Island

Microsoft has signed a 20-year power purchase agreement that will bring the shuttered Unit 1 reactor at Three Mile Island back into service.

China finally fires its stimulus bazooka

Beijing has given up on piecemeal stimulus. The property slump shows no sign of ending, deflation is deepening and growth targets are slipping away.

The Fed goes big

Jerome Powell opened the easing cycle with a half-point cut at the September FOMC meeting, taking the benchmark rate to 4.75–5.00 per cent.

Cutting from strength, or from fear?

Headline consumer price inflation fell to 2.5 per cent in August, and the Federal Reserve is about to start cutting.

Boeing's strike and its shrinking cash pile

Boeing's troubles have turned into a crisis of cash. Some 33,000 machinists in the International Association of Machinists (IAM) have walked out, halting production of its flagship 737 Max.

Half a point or a quarter?

The Federal Reserve goes into its September meeting divided over how to begin cutting rates: with the standard 25 basis points, or a more forceful 50.

Anniversary: Two years of calls, checked

This column began in September 2022, as inflation soared and central banks raised rates in a panic.

The jobs numbers keep getting revised down

Employers added 142,000 non-farm jobs in August, short of consensus forecasts, and the previous two months were revised down by a further 86,000.

Nobody's being fired. Nobody's being hired

American employers have more or less stopped firing people, and more or less stopped hiring them too.

Labor Day: Is the job market cracking?

The unemployment rate reached 4.3 per cent in July, nearly a full percentage point above its low for the cycle.

Nvidia beats and still falls

Nvidia's second-quarter revenue rose 122 per cent to $30 billion, ahead of consensus forecasts.

The yield curve un-inverts. Is that good news?

On 5 August the gap between two-year and ten-year Treasury yields briefly turned positive, for the first time since July 2022.

America had 818,000 fewer jobs than we thought

On 21 August the Bureau of Labor Statistics published preliminary benchmark revisions showing that US non-farm payrolls had been overstated by 818,000 jobs in the twelve months to March 2024.

Is it finally time to cut?

July's consumer price index showed headline inflation at 2.9 per cent year-on-year, below three per cent for the first time since March 2021.

Buffett is sitting on $277bn of cash

Berkshire Hathaway's second-quarter filings sent markets a clear message about valuations.

The carry trade that blew up

The yen carry trade unwound in early August, and markets around the world lurched.

Wall Street's fear gauge hits 65. What happened?

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) hit 65 during trading on Monday, 5 August, a level of fear seen before only during the 2008 Lehman collapse and the 2020 pandemic shock.

The recession alarm goes off

US payrolls grew by just 114,000 in July and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3 per cent, a nasty surprise for markets.

Intel stops paying its dividend

Intel suspended its dividend with its second-quarter results, ending thirty-two years of uninterrupted payouts.

Japan hikes into the world's most crowded trade

The Bank of Japan surprised markets on 31 July by raising its benchmark interest rate to 0.25 per cent and announcing plans to halve its monthly bond purchases.

Small caps soar as crowded bets unwind

The Russell 2000 index of small companies rose 11.5 per cent in five straight trading sessions after the soft June inflation figures, as money poured out of the biggest technology stocks and into beaten-down small caps.

Biden steps aside: what it means for the deficit

Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race on 21 July and endorsed Kamala Harris, adding fresh uncertainty to America's fiscal outlook.

CrowdStrike's outage: who pays?

A faulty software update from cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike crashed an estimated 8.5 million Microsoft Windows systems around the world on 19 July, grounding airlines and disrupting hospitals and banks.

Prime Day: The ad business behind the discounts

Amazon's tenth annual Prime Day brought in an estimated $14.2 billion in online sales, a record.

Japan steps in to save the yen

Japan's Ministry of Finance intervened in the currency market again on 11 July, moving straight after softer-than-expected US consumer price figures came out.

Prices fall for the first time since 2020

The US consumer price index fell 0.1 per cent in June, its first monthly decline since the early disruption of the 2020 pandemic.

Why tariffs won't fix the trade deficit

Protectionists argue that taxing imports will close the trade deficit and bring American industry back to its former strength.

Who actually pays a 10% tariff?

Donald Trump has proposed a universal baseline tariff of ten per cent on all imports and a sixty per cent levy on Chinese goods, and corporate finance departments are arguing over what it would cost them.

Independence Day: Is the dollar losing its crown?

The dollar's share of allocated global foreign exchange reserves has slipped to roughly fifty-eight per cent, its lowest in nearly three decades, according to the International Monetary Fund's COFER data.

The "Trump trade" hits bonds

How a presidential debate moves the bond market

Joe Biden's performance in the 27 June presidential debate against Donald Trump moved markets as well as voters.

China's cheap EVs meet Europe's tariffs

The European Commission has imposed provisional countervailing duties of up to 38.1 per cent on battery electric vehicles (EVs) imported from China.

Nvidia becomes the world's most valuable company

Nvidia overtook Microsoft on 18 June to become the world's most valuable listed company, with a market value of $3.34 trillion.

Is France the eurozone's next crisis?

The spread between French ten-year government bonds and German Bunds has widened to eighty basis points, its widest since the sovereign debt crisis of 2012.

The Fed now sees just one cut

The Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark rate at 5.25–5.50 per cent in June and cut its own forecast for easing this year.

Macron's gamble spooks French bond markets

French bonds sold off hard after Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called snap parliamentary elections, following a heavy defeat in the European elections.

Nvidia hits $3trn, and index funds are along for the ride

Nvidia's market value passed $3 trillion on 5 June, overtaking Apple to make it the second most valuable company in the world.

What happens to the euro when the ECB cuts first

Futures on the euro short-term rate (€STR) show near-certainty of a 25-basis-point cut at the European Central Bank's 6 June meeting, and currency desks are positioning for the two central banks to diverge.

How far can Europe cut before the Fed does?

The European Central Bank is getting ready to cut rates before the Federal Reserve.

America's deficit won't shrink

The Congressional Budget Office's updated baseline puts the federal deficit above $1.5 trillion in 2024, rising toward $2.6 trillion over the coming decade, and that is before Congress passes anything new.